E-Mobility Sales Forecasting Model

Deloitte has developed a proprietary model which is based on Total cost of ownership (TCO) to forecast the future distribution of vehicle sales across different drivetrain types. This enables us to offer our clients quantitative support on their journey towards e-mobility by evaluating the impact of various levers such as political regulations and identifying (global) market potentials. In this article, we present our E-Mobility Sales Forecasting Model in more detail.

Forecasting the sales distribution of alternative powered vehicles, such as battery electric vehicles (BEV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV), and fuel cell vehicles, has become increasingly important as the world is forced to move towards greener powertrains and a more sustainable future. With our proprietary E-Mobility Forecasting Model, we can predict sales figures for different markets worldwide and help companies with their transformation towards alternative powertrains. It also provides different industry players with a better understanding of the impact that certain levers can have on the ramp-up numbers.

What are the advantages of our E-Mobility Sales Forecasting Model?

We provide a detailed understanding of how market shares for alternative powered vehicles are likely to evolve, allowing our clients to better plan in advance. Our results can be used to inform strategic decisions, such as planning the market launch of electrified vehicles and/or the level of investment in new technologies or production facilities. By providing companies with a clear understanding of the market, we can help them stay competitive and make the most of the opportunities that are likely to arise in the future.

In order to provide a robust forecast, we apply a total-cost-of-ownership logic, paired with market data collected by our research team and validated by our global network of experts. A variety of input parameters are considered in the analysis, including some of the following, as shown in figure 1:

Furthermore, we can help companies to better understand the impact of these regulatory and technological levers. For example, we can create customized scenarios that consider changes in government policies, such as the introduction of incentives for the purchase of electric vehicles or stricter emissions standards.

Benefits beyond companies to policymakers

In addition to the benefits for companies, we can also support policymakers in their efforts to promote the adoption of alternative powered vehicles. By providing detailed information on the market for electric and hybrid vehicles, we enable the development of tailored policies for different markets that are more effective and better targeted to different consumer groups. By simulating the impact of different policy levers, our forecasting model can help understand the risks and opportunities that are associated with different policy options to make more informed decisions.

By applying data from some of the largest and most important vehicle markets worldwide, as well as constantly monitoring and updating our input parameters, we provide a current and global view of the passenger car market. Moreover, we can provide a dashboard report of our results and combine different scenarios and markets to provide meaningful insights in an easy way. The results can be filtered by powertrain, vehicle segment, customer segment, and ownership type. Furthermore, our model allows for a flexible adjustment of the forecast horizon well beyond 2030.

Figure two shows the ramp-up for the German market starting in early 2023 in a base-case scenario, where we see cumulative BEV sales of approximately 11 million BEVs in 2030. If we consider the government's target of having 15 million BEVs on the road by that year, a delta of around 4 million can be estimated. Our forecasting model allows us to simulate different scenarios with (e.g.) extended EV incentives and powertrain-based tax adjustments that could help achieve this target. 

For more detailed information on our E-Mobility Forecasting Model, please contact our experts. In addition, our Deloitte network has extensive expertise in other key automotive topics. Our global automotive practice combines the strengths of multiple Deloitte businesses to help companies in the automotive ecosystem to solve complex challenges and capitalize on transformative opportunities.